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Dear all, <br>
<br>
I just want to add the issue of "model calibration" which seems to
me as being related to estimation and validation. Just to give a
short example what I mean by calibration: We use some information of
a data set to estimate our model parameters, run the model based on
those parameters and see that the results are not externally valid.
We the iteratively change some of the input parameters until the
model results are externally valid. I would find it very interesting
to discuss if calibration should be performed and if so, how far
from the originally estimated parameters you would accept your
calibrated values to be. [I hope I am not stating the obvious or
missed some guidance on this topic already available ;-) ]<br>
<br>
@ Jelster: If you use R, maybe the GAMLSS-package developed by Prof.
Mikis Stasinopoulos is helpful to you. As far as I understand it,
the package was developed from the need of parameter estimation in
agent-based modeling. You can estimate all parameters of large list
of probability distributions. So let's say you want to estimate the
probability of getting diabetes conditional on age, sex, education,
etc. You can estimate a general linear model using a
beta-distribution and include the resulting coefficients to include
them in your model. So, every person in your model can calculate the
parameters of the beta-distribution based on their age, sex,
education, etc. and you can draw random numbers from that
distribution to determine whether a person gets diabetes or not.<br>
<br>
Best,<br>
Stefan<br>
<br>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Am 03.02.2016 um 01:45 schrieb Jacob
Barhak:<br>
</div>
<blockquote
cite="mid:CAM_y+3Tq1-JRs61vSa1r-dz2oavXXd2TB5eY36S6456t9Ok-3A@mail.gmail.com"
type="cite">
<p dir="ltr">Hi Melanie, Hi Jeljer, Hi Olaf, Hi Stefan,</p>
<p dir="ltr">It seems the panel is forming nicely. I will try to
summarize what we had so far and help figure the rest.</p>
<p dir="ltr">1. The topic seems to revolve around "estimation and
validation in population modeling" with some variations. If you
are all ok with this general topic, I suggest we stick with it
as a base.</p>
<p dir="ltr">2. It seems there is agreement on separate papers
with the same title prefix. So please allocate time on writing a
short 3 page paper. Since panelists are not closely affiliated,
each will review the papers of another panelist which will
contribute to panel cohesion since the panelists will influence
each others final paper. Note that the review process is public
and non-blind.</p>
<p dir="ltr">3. Presentations followed by a period of questions to
all panelists seems to be the choice. I assume there will be
20-30 minutes per panelist, yet we will have to set timing once
we know number of presentations. </p>
<p dir="ltr">Olaf asked about other presenters. Yes, there will be
other presentations by non panelists. In fact any one of you can
choose to detach from the panel and submit a paper on their own.
I will send a CFP to the list following this message. </p>
<p dir="ltr">The difference for panelists would be: <br>
1. Panelists will have some discount that SCS promised - I have
no exact details yet. This makes sense since they will have
more involvement. <br>
2. Panelists will gain extra exposure which you are already
getting with these communications. <br>
3. If time is available, panelists will get more time for
discussion beyond other presenters. I will communicate with
organizers to see what is possible beyond that. Yet for now,
assume the panel is part of the BMPM track. </p>
<p dir="ltr">Note that SummerSim is a Multi-conference, so having
a panel may attract more people. From the past, you should
expect about 10-20 in the room for the presentation if last
years are indicative. I suspect a panel can attract more. </p>
<p dir="ltr">So for panelists still interested, please: </p>
<p dir="ltr">1. Confirm that you are ok with the topic and format
by sending an email to this list. Or continue discussing the
topic until consensus is reached. And you can split into two
panels with separate topics, or announce you are interested in a
paper outside the panel. </p>
<p dir="ltr">2. Start writing a short 3 page paper to submit to
the SCS web site. Recall that the title prefix should be the
same for all papers if you are in the panel. </p>
<p dir="ltr">3. Allocate time to review a paper or two by another
panelist. This review will be public. </p>
<p dir="ltr">Hopefully this explains the next steps and I hope
more panelists would express interest in the topic forming. </p>
<p dir="ltr"> Jacob<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
</p>
<div class="gmail_quot<blockquote class=" style="margin:0 0 0
.8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="auto">
<div>Dear All, </div>
<div>I agree with Stefan re 1 and 2. </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>1. I like the idea of talking about input-output stuff -
data sources, constraints, validation issues.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>2. Fully agree with Stefan. </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>3. If we have slides, this should be flash talks, not
longish formal presentations. I am still unclear whether we
have presentations from conference participants who are NOT
panelists?</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>My 2 cents</div>
<div>Olaf</div>
<div><br>
<br>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"><span
style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">--</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"><span
style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Olaf
Dammann, MD</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"><span
style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Professor
of Public Health & Community Medicine</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"><span
style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Tufts
University School of Medicine </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"><span
style="background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0)">Boston, MA
02111</span></p>
</div>
<div><br>
On Jan 21, 2016, at 4:00 AM, Stefan Scholz <<a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de"
target="_blank"><a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de">stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de</a></a>>
wrote:<br>
<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div>Hi all,<br>
<br>
thanks for all your efforts! Here are my thoughts on the
three points:<br>
<br>
1. Topic: I am not quite sure whether the topics really do
mean the same thing. I would understand Melanies
suggestion as "what are the differences in the results/<b>output</b><b>s</b>
from estimation vs. simulation" whereas I would understand
the topic "estimation in population modeling" more as
estimation of model <b>input </b>parameters. (Please
tell me, if I got that wrong!) I think both are
interesting topics and maybe we could bring them both
together under the general topic of validity (external and
internal). (i.e. how do we estimate model input to get
externally valid results and how do we assess the latter)<br>
<br>
2. I would vote for separate papers under the same topic,
sharing the same prefix.<br>
<br>
3. I would go for option B). Option A) is fine as well,
but we should make clear if there are some contrary
opinions on this topic. If panelists agree on almost every
topic, this might get boring. Also, I would see the number
of people in the audience a critical factor for a panel.
If we are a small group, sharing the methods used for
estimation and discussing it in the group might be more
beneficial to all attendees.<br>
<br>
Best,<br>
Stefan<br>
<br>
<div>Am 19.01.2016 um 19:42 schrieb Jacob Barhak:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">
<div>Hi Melanie, Hi Olaf, Hi Stefan, Hi Carl,</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>You all expressed interest in appearing in a
population modeling panel in SummerSim.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Melanie also suggested a topic:</div>
<div>"differences and extrapolation concerns around
'simulation vs. estimation’ in bio-medical area"</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>At this point, I wish interested parties to
discuss the following:</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>1. The topic - feel free to suggest alternative
topics/titles and we can see how having the panel
will contribute to the topic. Note that if we end up
with different topics, it is also ok since others
may join to support the topic you suggested.
Hopefully there will be synergy, yet complementary
topics or even different opinions are possible. This
discussion itself is valuable.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>2. Writing Format. The conference includes
a paper. Part of the discussion should be how do you
prefer to be published. Do you want a joint paper?
Or would you like each to submit a short paper with
similar topics? This would probably be tied to the
topic you suggest. Yet note that whatever paper
format chosen, it will undergo public non-blind
review.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>3. Presentation format: How would you like the
talk to be? Possibilities include: A) Totally
informal discussion where panelists converge amongst
themselves, possibly with moderation and questions
from he audience. B) Presentations with a projector
of each panelist and then a period of questions.
C) A combination of both, for example very short
introductions with a projector and then a
discussion. Assume half an hour per panelist, yet
this may change.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>As a default starting point for discussion, allow
me to suggest the following:</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>1. Topic Estimation in population modeling - its
generalization for what Melanie suggested - feel
free to reshape it any way comfortable to you.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>2. Writing format: Very short separate papers
using the topic as a title prefix. to have a common
prefix fro all panelists. Here is an
example: Estimation in population Modeling -
application in Disease Models.
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>3. Presentation format: Short digital
introductions of about 15 minutes each - with only a
few slides and a discussion that will start with
expanding prepared topics encountered during
discussions and review and then answering questions
from the audience.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>This default can be changed during discussion. </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Please feel free to join this discussion if you
are interested in appearing in a population modeling
panel in SummerSim - even if you are not personally
addressed. This post is initially directed to those
who expressed interest on this list, yet we can
certainly expand the scope to include more
panelists, and I know of interest by others at this
point.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>I look forward to your opinions.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div> Jacob</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<fieldset></fieldset>
<br>
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<pre cols="72">--
Stefan Scholz
University of Bielefeld
Faculty of Public Health
Department of Health Economics and Health Management
P.O. Box 10 01 31
D-33501 Bielefeld, Germany
Phone: +49 0521 | 106-2648
Mail: <a moz-do-not-send="true" href="mailto:stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de" target="_blank">stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de</a></pre>
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<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Stefan Scholz
University of Bielefeld
Faculty of Public Health
Department of Health Economics and Health Management
P.O. Box 10 01 31
D-33501 Bielefeld, Germany
Phone: +49 0521 | 106-2648
Mail: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de">stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de</a></pre>
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