<font size=2 face="sans-serif">Dear all,</font>
<br>
<br><font size=2 face="sans-serif">I like model calibration, but think
we could expand.</font>
<br><font size=2 face="sans-serif">My paper would be on "Model calibration:
An example of 25 years of cohort data and a lifestyle and disease model."
It is work in progress, so I am not sure about the results I will
be able to present yet.</font>
<br>
<br><font size=2 face="sans-serif">What is the next step, do we send an
abstract? If yes what is the deadline? and do we send it to the mailing
list?</font>
<br>
<br><font size=2 face="sans-serif">best wishes</font>
<br><font size=2 face="sans-serif">Jeljer</font>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br><font size=1 color=#5f5f5f face="sans-serif">From:
</font><font size=1 face="sans-serif">Stefan Scholz <stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de></font>
<br><font size=1 color=#5f5f5f face="sans-serif">To:
</font>
<br><font size=1 color=#5f5f5f face="sans-serif">Cc:
</font><font size=1 face="sans-serif">"popmodwkgrpimag-news@simtk.org"
<popmodwkgrpimag-news@simtk.org></font>
<br><font size=1 color=#5f5f5f face="sans-serif">Date:
</font><font size=1 face="sans-serif">04/03/2016 11:13</font>
<br><font size=1 color=#5f5f5f face="sans-serif">Subject:
</font><font size=1 face="sans-serif">Re: [Population
Modeling] Discussing the Population Modeling panel in SummerSim</font>
<br><font size=1 color=#5f5f5f face="sans-serif">Sent by:
</font><font size=1 face="sans-serif">popmodwkgrpimag-news-bounces@simtk.org</font>
<br>
<hr noshade>
<br>
<br>
<br><font size=3>Dear all,<br>
<br>
could we agree on a mixture of the topics, like "data sources, parameter
estimation and calibration"? My topic would be on "Social (media)
network data in models in the absence of survey data: An example of the
German MSM-population". It would take some creativity to fit that
into "model calibration" ;-)<br>
<br>
I hope this comes not to late!<br>
<br>
Thanks,<br>
Stefan<br>
</font>
<br><font size=3>Am 16.02.2016 um 17:44 schrieb Dammann, Olaf:</font>
<br><font size=2 color=#004080 face="Calibri">All: </font>
<br><font size=2 color=#004080 face="Calibri">I like “model calibration”
quite a bit.</font>
<br><font size=2 color=#004080 face="Calibri">My paper would be on “Model
calibration: Four levels of calibration – A critical appraisal” </font>
<br><font size=2 color=#004080 face="Calibri">Thanks,</font>
<br><font size=2 color=#004080 face="Calibri">Olaf</font>
<br><font size=2 color=#004080 face="Calibri"> </font>
<br><font size=2 color=#004080 face="Calibri"> </font>
<br><font size=2 color=#004080 face="Calibri"> </font>
<br><font size=2 color=#004080 face="Calibri"> </font>
<br><font size=2 face="Tahoma"><b>From:</b> Jacob Barhak [</font><a href=mailto:jacob.barhak@gmail.com><font size=2 color=blue face="Tahoma"><u>mailto:jacob.barhak@gmail.com</u></font></a><font size=2 face="Tahoma">]
<b><br>
Sent:</b> Tuesday, February 16, 2016 5:36 AM<b><br>
To:</b> Jeljer Hoekstra<b><br>
Cc:</b> Stefan Scholz; </font><a href="mailto:popmodwkgrpimag-news@simtk.org"><font size=2 color=blue face="Tahoma"><u>popmodwkgrpimag-news@simtk.org</u></font></a><font size=2 face="Tahoma">;
Mélanie Prague; Dammann, Olaf<b><br>
Subject:</b> Re: [Population Modeling] Discussing the Population Modeling
panel in SummerSim</font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">Hi Melanie, Hi Jeljer, Hi Stefan,
Hi Olaf,</font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">Since the 14-March deadline for
paper submission is coming closer, and since we were discussing a panel,
I would appreciate it if you can decide on a common prefix for the panel.</font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">So far we had a discussion revolving
around estimation, validation, calibration. Please choose a common denominator
title to fit all your work that will form a base for the panel and
submit it to the list.</font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">So far, here are the titles you
suggested as I extracted them from your posts:</font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">Melanie: 'simulation vs. estimation’
</font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">Olaf: "data sources,
constraints, validation issues"</font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">Stefan & Jeljer: "model
calibration" - </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">The last topic of "Model Calibration" seems
to be a common denominator so far, yet still possible for debate -
after all you had some nice discussions and may have a better idea.</font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">Yet if the last topic prefix is
comfortable to you all, then I ask that you will submit your paper
title to the mailing list to set the expectations from the panel and
leave you all sufficient time to write the short paper.</font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">I look forward to see your paper
titles.</font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">
Jacob</font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">On Mon, Feb 8, 2016 at 9:29 AM,
Jeljer Hoekstra <</font><a href=mailto:jeljer.hoekstra@rivm.nl target=_blank><font size=3 color=blue face="Times New Roman"><u>jeljer.hoekstra@rivm.nl</u></font></a><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">>
wrote:</font>
<br><font size=2 face="Arial">Dear Jacob, Stefan and others,</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">
<br>
</font><font size=2 face="Arial"><br>
I agree with Jacob that estimation and calibration generate parameter values
based on observed data. I never explicitly thought about in those terms
but that is what it is.</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=2 face="Arial"><br>
I have always used the terms in combination; calibrate a model and estimate
a parameter. I don't consider the one an automated search and the other
a manual human search per se . Usually if you estimate a parameter the
focus is on one parameter and a lot of statistical theory and software
exist to do that automatically. Whereas if you calibrate a model the focus
is often on all or a group of parameters in the model, which is perhaps
somewhat messier and needs more human interference. I am not sure though.</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">
<br>
</font><font size=2 face="Arial"><br>
I am interessted in the topic Stefan raised. What if you find parameters
in the literature or you have estimated them yourself with some dataset
and then you test and adjust those variables (calibrate?) so your model
replicates some other dataset better. How much change in those parameters
do you accept, keeping in mind that the parameter may be interpreted slightly
different in the calibrated model.</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">
</font><font size=2 face="Arial"><br>
Furthermore, if you calibrate your model you need some goodness of fit
criterium. I wonder if people have experience with weighing output variables
including a mixture of categorical variables (e.g. dead/alive, smoking)
and continous variables( e.g. BMI, cholesterol levels).</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">
<br>
</font><font size=2 face="Arial"><br>
Validation is a related subject. I consider a model validated if it can
mimic, to some degree a dataset that was not used to calibrate/estimate
it. Obviously also here you will need some goodness of fit criterium to
see if the model is validated or not. In my experience we do not often
have the luxury of a complete extra dataset for validation. So we end up
in the discussion Stefan mentioned, if the model is calibrated how far
do we accept parameters to be different from those estimated elsewhere.</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">
<br>
</font><font size=2 face="Arial"><br>
@stefan, thanks for poining out GAMLSS we will have a look.</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">
<br>
</font><font size=2 face="Arial"><br>
best wishes</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=2 face="Arial"><br>
Jeljer</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> <br>
<br>
<br>
</font><font size=1 color=#5f5f5f face="Arial"><br>
From: </font><font size=1 face="Arial">Jacob
Barhak <</font><a href=mailto:jacob.barhak@gmail.com target=_blank><font size=1 color=blue face="Arial"><u>jacob.barhak@gmail.com</u></font></a><font size=1 face="Arial">></font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">
</font><font size=1 color=#5f5f5f face="Arial"><br>
To: </font><font size=1 face="Arial">Stefan
Scholz <</font><a href="mailto:stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de" target=_blank><font size=1 color=blue face="Arial"><u>stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de</u></font></a><font size=1 face="Arial">>,
</font><font size=1 color=#5f5f5f face="Arial"><br>
Cc: </font><font size=1 face="Arial">"</font><a href="mailto:popmodwkgrpimag-news@simtk.org" target=_blank></a><a href="mailto:popmodwkgrpimag-news@simtk.org"><font size=1 color=blue face="Arial"><u>popmodwkgrpimag-news@simtk.org</u></font></a><font size=1 face="Arial">"
<</font><a href="mailto:popmodwkgrpimag-news@simtk.org" target=_blank><font size=1 color=blue face="Arial"><u>popmodwkgrpimag-news@simtk.org</u></font></a><font size=1 face="Arial">>,
Mélanie Prague <</font><a href="mailto:melanie.prague@isped.u-bordeaux2.fr" target=_blank><font size=1 color=blue face="Arial"><u>melanie.prague@isped.u-bordeaux2.fr</u></font></a><font size=1 face="Arial">>,
Jeljer Hoekstra <</font><a href=mailto:jeljer.hoekstra@rivm.nl target=_blank><font size=1 color=blue face="Arial"><u>jeljer.hoekstra@rivm.nl</u></font></a><font size=1 face="Arial">>,
"Dammann, Olaf" <</font><a href=mailto:Olaf.Dammann@tufts.edu target=_blank><font size=1 color=blue face="Arial"><u>Olaf.Dammann@tufts.edu</u></font></a><font size=1 face="Arial">></font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">
</font><font size=1 color=#5f5f5f face="Arial"><br>
Date: </font><font size=1 face="Arial">05/02/2016
00:50</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=1 color=#5f5f5f face="Arial"><br>
Subject: </font><font size=1 face="Arial">Re:
[Population Modeling] Discussing the Population Modeling panel in SummerSim</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">
</font>
<div align=center>
<hr noshade></div>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><br>
<br>
<br>
So Stefan, <br>
<br>
Since this is part of the discussion on your panel topic, you will have
to choose the topic and I will try not to intervene much. Yet do allow
me to add a note regarding calibration and estimation. <br>
<br>
Both calibration and estimation generate model parameters as outputs
from observed known data. <br>
<br>
Will you agree with me that the term calibration would be more appropriate
to human manipulated parameters while estimation is perhaps more
general term that includes automated machine algorithm methods? <br>
<br>
I have seen the term estimation used for parameter estimation using Delphi
style human voting, so I think "estimation" would include "calibration"
as a sub category. <br>
<br>
Even though there is always some sort of human input to the modeling
process, it seems things are becoming more automated these days. What term
would you use for heavily machine dependent estimation algorithms
as opposed to human tightly controlled calibration? Is there a term
for those methods anyone in the list prefers using? <br>
<br>
Hopefully this will contribute to the panel discussion. <br>
<br>
Jacob <br>
<br>
<br>
On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 4:28 AM, Stefan Scholz <</font><a href="mailto:stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de" target=_blank></a><a href="mailto:stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de"><font size=3 color=blue face="Times New Roman"><u>stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de</u></font></a><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">>
wrote: <br>
Dear all, <br>
<br>
I just want to add the issue of "model calibration" which seems
to me as being related to estimation and validation. Just to give a short
example what I mean by calibration: We use some information of a data set
to estimate our model parameters, run the model based on those parameters
and see that the results are not externally valid. We the iteratively change
some of the input parameters until the model results are externally valid.
I would find it very interesting to discuss if calibration should be performed
and if so, how far from the originally estimated parameters you would accept
your calibrated values to be. [I hope I am not stating the obvious or missed
some guidance on this topic already available ;-) ]<br>
<br>
@ Jelster: If you use R, maybe the GAMLSS-package developed by Prof. Mikis
Stasinopoulos is helpful to you. As far as I understand it, the package
was developed from the need of parameter estimation in agent-based modeling.
You can estimate all parameters of large list of probability distributions.
So let's say you want to estimate the probability of getting diabetes conditional
on age, sex, education, etc. You can estimate a general linear model using
a beta-distribution and include the resulting coefficients to include them
in your model. So, every person in your model can calculate the parameters
of the beta-distribution based on their age, sex, education, etc. and you
can draw random numbers from that distribution to determine whether a person
gets diabetes or not.<br>
<br>
Best,<br>
Stefan <br>
<br>
<br>
Am 03.02.2016 um 01:45 schrieb Jacob Barhak: </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">Hi Melanie, Hi Jeljer, Hi Olaf,
Hi Stefan, </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">It seems the panel is forming nicely.
I will try to summarize what we had so far and help figure the rest. </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">1. The topic seems to revolve around
"estimation and validation in population modeling" with some
variations. If you are all ok with this general topic, I suggest we stick
with it as a base. </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">2. It seems there is agreement
on separate papers with the same title prefix. So please allocate time
on writing a short 3 page paper. Since panelists are not closely affiliated,
each will review the papers of another panelist which will contribute to
panel cohesion since the panelists will influence each others final paper.
Note that the review process is public and non-blind. </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">3. Presentations followed by a
period of questions to all panelists seems to be the choice. I assume there
will be 20-30 minutes per panelist, yet we will have to set timing once
we know number of presentations. </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">Olaf asked about other presenters.
Yes, there will be other presentations by non panelists. In fact any one
of you can choose to detach from the panel and submit a paper on their
own. I will send a CFP to the list following this message. </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">The difference for panelists would
be: <br>
1. Panelists will have some discount that SCS promised - I have no exact
details yet. This makes sense since they will have more involvement.
<br>
2. Panelists will gain extra exposure which you are already getting with
these communications. <br>
3. If time is available, panelists will get more time for discussion beyond
other presenters. I will communicate with organizers to see what is possible
beyond that. Yet for now, assume the panel is part of the BMPM track.
</font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">Note that SummerSim is a Multi-conference,
so having a panel may attract more people. From the past, you should
expect about 10-20 in the room for the presentation if last years are indicative.
I suspect a panel can attract more. </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">So for panelists still interested,
please: </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">1. Confirm that you are ok with
the topic and format by sending an email to this list. Or continue discussing
the topic until consensus is reached. And you can split into two panels
with separate topics, or announce you are interested in a paper outside
the panel. </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">2. Start writing a short 3 page
paper to submit to the SCS web site. Recall that the title prefix should
be the same for all papers if you are in the panel. </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">3. Allocate time to review a paper
or two by another panelist. This review will be public. </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">Hopefully this explains the next
steps and I hope more panelists would express interest in the topic forming.
</font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">
Jacob<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Dear All, <br>
I agree with Stefan re 1 and 2. <br>
<br>
1. I like the idea of talking about input-output stuff - data sources,
constraints, validation issues. <br>
<br>
2. Fully agree with Stefan. <br>
<br>
3. If we have slides, this should be flash talks, not longish formal presentations.
I am still unclear whether we have presentations from conference
participants who are NOT panelists? <br>
<br>
My 2 cents <br>
Olaf <br>
<br>
<br>
-- <br>
Olaf Dammann, MD <br>
Professor of Public Health & Community Medicine <br>
Tufts University School of Medicine <br>
Boston, MA 02111 </font>
<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><br>
On Jan 21, 2016, at 4:00 AM, Stefan Scholz <</font><a href="mailto:stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de" target=_blank></a><a href="mailto:stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de"><font size=3 color=blue face="Times New Roman"><u>stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de</u></font></a><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">>
wrote:<br>
<br>
Hi all,<br>
<br>
thanks for all your efforts! Here are my thoughts on the three points:<br>
<br>
1. Topic: I am not quite sure whether the topics really do mean the same
thing. I would understand Melanies suggestion as "what are the differences
in the results/<b>outputs</b> from estimation vs. simulation" whereas
I would understand the topic "estimation in population modeling"
more as estimation of model <b>input </b>parameters. (Please tell me, if
I got that wrong!) I think both are interesting topics and maybe we could
bring them both together under the general topic of validity (external
and internal). (i.e. how do we estimate model input to get externally valid
results and how do we assess the latter)<br>
<br>
2. I would vote for separate papers under the same topic, sharing the same
prefix.<br>
<br>
3. I would go for option B). Option A) is fine as well, but we should make
clear if there are some contrary opinions on this topic. If panelists agree
on almost every topic, this might get boring. Also, I would see the number
of people in the audience a critical factor for a panel. If we are a small
group, sharing the methods used for estimation and discussing it in the
group might be more beneficial to all attendees.<br>
<br>
Best,<br>
Stefan<br>
<br>
Am 19.01.2016 um 19:42 schrieb Jacob Barhak: <br>
Hi Melanie, Hi Olaf, Hi Stefan, Hi Carl, <br>
<br>
You all expressed interest in appearing in a population modeling panel
in SummerSim. <br>
<br>
Melanie also suggested a topic: <br>
"differences and extrapolation concerns around 'simulation vs. estimation’
in bio-medical area" <br>
<br>
At this point, I wish interested parties to discuss the following: <br>
<br>
1. The topic - feel free to suggest alternative topics/titles and we can
see how having the panel will contribute to the topic. Note that if we
end up with different topics, it is also ok since others may join to support
the topic you suggested. Hopefully there will be synergy, yet complementary
topics or even different opinions are possible. This discussion itself
is valuable. <br>
<br>
2. Writing Format. The conference includes a paper. Part of the discussion
should be how do you prefer to be published. Do you want a joint paper?
Or would you like each to submit a short paper with similar topics? This
would probably be tied to the topic you suggest. Yet note that whatever
paper format chosen, it will undergo public non-blind review. <br>
<br>
3. Presentation format: How would you like the talk to be? Possibilities
include: A) Totally informal discussion where panelists converge amongst
themselves, possibly with moderation and questions from he audience. B)
Presentations with a projector of each panelist and then a period of questions.
C) A combination of both, for example very short introductions with
a projector and then a discussion. Assume half an hour per panelist, yet
this may change. <br>
<br>
As a default starting point for discussion, allow me to suggest the following:
<br>
<br>
1. Topic Estimation in population modeling - its generalization for
what Melanie suggested - feel free to reshape it any way comfortable to
you. <br>
<br>
2. Writing format: Very short separate papers using the topic as a title
prefix. to have a common prefix fro all panelists. Here is an example: Estimation
in population Modeling - application in Disease Models. <br>
<br>
3. Presentation format: Short digital introductions of about 15 minutes
each - with only a few slides and a discussion that will start with expanding prepared
topics encountered during discussions and review and then answering questions
from the audience. <br>
<br>
This default can be changed during discussion. <br>
<br>
Please feel free to join this discussion if you are interested in
appearing in a population modeling panel in SummerSim - even if you are
not personally addressed. This post is initially directed to those who
expressed interest on this list, yet we can certainly expand the scope
to include more panelists, and I know of interest by others at this point.
<br>
<br>
I look forward to your opinions. <br>
<br>
Jacob <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
</font><font size=3 face="Courier New"><br>
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<br>
</font><font size=3 face="Courier New"><br>
-- <br>
Stefan Scholz</font><font size=3><br>
</font><font size=3 face="Courier New"><br>
University of Bielefeld<br>
Faculty of Public Health<br>
Department of Health Economics and Health Management<br>
P.O. Box 10 01 31<br>
D-33501 Bielefeld, Germany</font><font size=3><br>
</font><font size=3 face="Courier New"><br>
Phone: +49 0521 | 106-2648<br>
Mail: </font><a href="mailto:stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de" target=_blank><font size=3 color=blue face="Courier New"><u>stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de</u></font></a><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">
<br>
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<br>
<br>
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<br>
</font><font size=3 face="Courier New"><br>
-- <br>
Stefan Scholz</font><font size=3><br>
</font><font size=3 face="Courier New"><br>
University of Bielefeld<br>
Faculty of Public Health<br>
Department of Health Economics and Health Management<br>
P.O. Box 10 01 31<br>
D-33501 Bielefeld, Germany</font><font size=3><br>
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Phone: +49 0521 | 106-2648<br>
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<br><tt><font size=3>-- <br>
Stefan Scholz<br>
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University of Bielefeld<br>
Faculty of Public Health<br>
Department of Health Economics and Health Management<br>
P.O. Box 10 01 31<br>
D-33501 Bielefeld, Germany<br>
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Phone: +49 0521 | 106-2648<br>
Mail: </font></tt><a href="mailto:stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de"><tt><font size=3 color=blue><u>stefan.scholz@uni-bielefeld.de</u></font></tt></a><tt><font size=2>_______________________________________________<br>
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