The Reference Model describes disease complications in a population.
It is:
• An ensemble model assembling multiple other models
• A league of disease models that compete and cooperate
• A validation model
• A medical knowledge accumulator

The Reference Model is now:
COVID-19 model for US states and territories
The Most Validated Cardiovascular (CVD) Diabetes Model known
United States Patent 9,858,390
United States Patent Number 10,923,234

The Reference Model can now:
• Attempt to explain COVID-19 for US states
• Determine CVD models that significantly behave better on several diabetic populations
• Deduce that CVD probability halves every 5 years due to medicine improving - according to information from the last 3 decades
• Calculate life tables for diabetics
• Interface with ClinicalTrials.Gov
• Include human interpretation in the model
• Create an interactive map of our cumulative computational knowledge gap


The interactive plot below shows our cumulative knowledge gap by showing the error in the vertical axis for US states and territories listed on the horizontal axis. Circles at the bottom have a better fit between observed COVID-19 results and model results. Results are for normalized population of size 10,000 individuals. Hover over the circles to see additional details about each state. The slider determines the model optimization iteration. User can explore the map by changing size and color attributes.


The Reference Model is a good way to cross reference information to find out pieces of information and assumptions that fit together, and allow competition against accumulated known data to guide our perception. High Performance Computing is a key to those capabilities and it provided using capabilities of the MIcro Simulation Tool (MIST) .

MIST also provides advance population generation techniques using Evolutionary computation. The Reference Model uses publicly available data such as clinical trial publications. This allows it to access more information since it allows accessing data that otherwise will be restricted from sharing. The Reference Model has an interface that allows it to read information from ClinicalTrials.Gov while maintaining tractability and reproducibility.

The Reference Model was created in 2012 and evolved since then. You can find key developments and publications by year in the news section .

Here are some videos describing the Model:

This video gives a brief introduction

This video will shows recent results of explaining COVID-19 using USA data:

This video will show a breakthrough of becoming the first multiscale ensemble model for COVID-19:

This video explains the model in a larger context as presented in AnacondaCon 2019:

This video explains how human interpretation can be used as presented in the Multiscale Viral Pandemics working group webinar:

This video summarizes a decade of work as presented in PyTexas 2017:

This describes the evolution of the model up to 2016 presented in PyTexas:

This describes the work presented in PyData in 2014:

Related Projects

The project owner recommends the following other projects:

MIcro Simulation Tool - MIST

Population Modeling Workgroup